{
  "benchmark_id": "BENCH-2026-001",
  "version": "2.1.0",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-24T12:24:24.863Z",
  "resolved_cases_count": 5,
  "base_rate_uncertainty": 0.16,
  "models": [
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      "description": "Multimodal agentic telemetry, Vulnerability Genome structural loci decomposition, and kinetic risk trajectory modeling.",
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        "PRED-002": 0.82,
        "PRED-003": 0.65,
        "PRED-004": 0.78,
        "PRED-005": 0.94
      },
      "case_scores": [
        {
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          "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460",
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-003",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248",
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-004",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319",
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-005",
          "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400",
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        }
      ],
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      "murphy_decomposition": {
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      },
      "discrimination_auc": 0.6,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
      "id": "CROWD-WISDOM",
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      "type": "crowd_wisdom",
      "badge": "Aggregated Human",
      "description": "Ensemble wisdom-of-the-crowd prior simulating superforecaster and analyst community probability distributions.",
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        "PRED-003": 0.55,
        "PRED-004": 0.7,
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          "brier_score": 0.0784
        },
        {
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        },
        {
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-004",
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-005",
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          "brier_score": 0.0225
        }
      ],
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      "brier_skill_score": 50.7,
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      },
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      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
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      "name": "CVSS Severity Heuristic",
      "type": "cvss_heuristic",
      "badge": "Enterprise Standard",
      "description": "Conventional enterprise rule-of-thumb mapping static CVSS base metrics directly to subjective likelihood (Critical: 90-95%, High: 75-85%).",
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        "PRED-004": 0.8,
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-003",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248",
          "forecast_probability": 0.9,
          "outcome": 0,
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-004",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319",
          "forecast_probability": 0.8,
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          "brier_score": 0.04
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-005",
          "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400",
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          "brier_score": 0.0004
        }
      ],
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        "resolution": 0,
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      },
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      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
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      "type": "random_baseline",
      "badge": "Coin Flip",
      "description": "Zero-information baseline assigning equal 50/50 odds (P = 0.50) to all event propositions.",
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        "PRED-002": 0.5,
        "PRED-003": 0.5,
        "PRED-004": 0.5,
        "PRED-005": 0.5
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          "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460",
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-002",
          "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650",
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          "brier_score": 0.25
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-003",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248",
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          "outcome": 0,
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        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-004",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319",
          "forecast_probability": 0.5,
          "outcome": 1,
          "brier_score": 0.25
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-005",
          "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400",
          "forecast_probability": 0.5,
          "outcome": 1,
          "brier_score": 0.25
        }
      ],
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      "brier_skill_score": 0,
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        "reliability": 0.09,
        "resolution": 0,
        "uncertainty": 0.16
      },
      "discrimination_auc": 0.5,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
      "id": "EPSS-RAW",
      "name": "Raw EPSS First-Day Baseline",
      "type": "epss_baseline",
      "badge": "Population-Wide",
      "description": "Unadjusted first-day published Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS v3) probability.",
      "predictions": {
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        "PRED-002": 0.12,
        "PRED-003": 0.04,
        "PRED-004": 0.08,
        "PRED-005": 0.21
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      "case_scores": [
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-001",
          "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460",
          "forecast_probability": 0.07,
          "outcome": 1,
          "brier_score": 0.8649
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-002",
          "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650",
          "forecast_probability": 0.12,
          "outcome": 1,
          "brier_score": 0.7744
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-003",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248",
          "forecast_probability": 0.04,
          "outcome": 0,
          "brier_score": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-004",
          "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319",
          "forecast_probability": 0.08,
          "outcome": 1,
          "brier_score": 0.8464
        },
        {
          "case_id": "PRED-005",
          "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400",
          "forecast_probability": 0.21,
          "outcome": 1,
          "brier_score": 0.6241
        }
      ],
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      "brier_skill_score": -148.9,
      "murphy_decomposition": {
        "reliability": 0.4719,
        "resolution": 0.0096,
        "uncertainty": 0.16
      },
      "discrimination_auc": 0.54,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "0%"
    }
  ],
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      "rank": 1,
      "model_id": "HFE-v2.0",
      "name": "Hermes Forecast Engine",
      "type": "agentic_hfe",
      "badge": "Champion",
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      "skill_score": "+58.3%",
      "tier": "ELITE (Superforecaster)",
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      "resolution": 0.0246,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
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      "name": "Crowd Consensus Baseline",
      "type": "crowd_wisdom",
      "badge": "Aggregated Human",
      "mean_brier_score": 0.1232,
      "skill_score": "+50.7%",
      "tier": "PROFICIENT",
      "reliability": 0.001,
      "resolution": 0.0216,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "model_id": "CVSS-HEURISTIC",
      "name": "CVSS Severity Heuristic",
      "type": "cvss_heuristic",
      "badge": "Enterprise Standard",
      "mean_brier_score": 0.1751,
      "skill_score": "+30%",
      "tier": "PROFICIENT",
      "reliability": 0.0151,
      "resolution": 0,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "model_id": "RANDOM-BASELINE",
      "name": "Uninformed Random Guess",
      "type": "random_baseline",
      "badge": "Coin Flip",
      "mean_brier_score": 0.25,
      "skill_score": "0%",
      "tier": "BASELINE",
      "reliability": 0.09,
      "resolution": 0,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)"
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "model_id": "EPSS-RAW",
      "name": "Raw EPSS First-Day Baseline",
      "type": "epss_baseline",
      "badge": "Population-Wide",
      "mean_brier_score": 0.6223,
      "skill_score": "-148.9%",
      "tier": "UNCALIBRATED",
      "reliability": 0.4719,
      "resolution": 0.0096,
      "win_rate_vs_epss": "0%"
    }
  ],
  "head_to_head_matrix": {
    "HFE-v2.0": {
      "CROWD-WISDOM": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CVSS-HEURISTIC": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "RANDOM-BASELINE": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "EPSS-RAW": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      }
    },
    "CROWD-WISDOM": {
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        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CVSS-HEURISTIC": {
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        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "RANDOM-BASELINE": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "EPSS-RAW": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      }
    },
    "CVSS-HEURISTIC": {
      "HFE-v2.0": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CROWD-WISDOM": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "RANDOM-BASELINE": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "EPSS-RAW": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      }
    },
    "RANDOM-BASELINE": {
      "HFE-v2.0": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CROWD-WISDOM": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CVSS-HEURISTIC": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "EPSS-RAW": {
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 1,
        "ties": 0
      }
    },
    "EPSS-RAW": {
      "HFE-v2.0": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CROWD-WISDOM": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      },
      "CVSS-HEURISTIC": {
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        "ties": 0
      },
      "RANDOM-BASELINE": {
        "wins": 1,
        "losses": 4,
        "ties": 0
      }
    }
  },
  "cases": [
    {
      "id": "PRED-001",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460",
      "title": "DeepSeek-V3 LLM Prompt Execution CISA KEV Addition",
      "outcome": 1,
      "target_date": "2026-10-15",
      "oracle_type": "cisa_kev_inclusion"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-002",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650",
      "title": "StyleSmuggler E-Commerce CSS Injection Weaponization",
      "outcome": 1,
      "target_date": "2026-09-28",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-003",
      "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248",
      "title": "Langflow Sandbox Memory Corruption Mass Internet Scanning",
      "outcome": 0,
      "target_date": "2025-06-15",
      "oracle_type": "greynoise_mass_exploitation"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-004",
      "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319",
      "title": "AutoGPT Indirect Prompt Injection Shell Escape CISA KEV Listing",
      "outcome": 1,
      "target_date": "2025-08-30",
      "oracle_type": "cisa_kev_inclusion"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-005",
      "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400",
      "title": "Palo Alto Networks PAN-OS Command Injection Mass Exploitation",
      "outcome": 1,
      "target_date": "2024-04-19",
      "oracle_type": "shadowserver_telemetry"
    }
  ]
}