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"CVE-2025-26319", "forecast_probability": 0.7, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.09 }, { "case_id": "PRED-005", "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400", "forecast_probability": 0.85, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.0225 } ], "mean_brier_score": 0.1232, "brier_skill_score": 50.7, "murphy_decomposition": { "reliability": 0.001, "resolution": 0.0216, "uncertainty": 0.16 }, "discrimination_auc": 0.59, "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)" }, { "id": "CVSS-HEURISTIC", "name": "CVSS Severity Heuristic", "type": "cvss_heuristic", "badge": "Enterprise Standard", "description": "Conventional enterprise rule-of-thumb mapping static CVSS base metrics directly to subjective likelihood (Critical: 90-95%, High: 75-85%).", "predictions": { "PRED-001": 0.95, "PRED-002": 0.85, "PRED-003": 0.9, "PRED-004": 0.8, "PRED-005": 0.98 }, "case_scores": [ { "case_id": "PRED-001", "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460", "forecast_probability": 0.95, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.0025 }, { "case_id": "PRED-002", "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650", "forecast_probability": 0.85, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.0225 }, { "case_id": "PRED-003", "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248", "forecast_probability": 0.9, "outcome": 0, "brier_score": 0.81 }, { "case_id": "PRED-004", "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319", "forecast_probability": 0.8, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.04 }, { "case_id": "PRED-005", "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400", "forecast_probability": 0.98, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.0004 } ], "mean_brier_score": 0.1751, "brier_skill_score": 30, "murphy_decomposition": { "reliability": 0.0151, "resolution": 0, "uncertainty": 0.16 }, "discrimination_auc": 0.5, "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)" }, { "id": "RANDOM-BASELINE", "name": "Uninformed Random Guess", "type": "random_baseline", "badge": "Coin Flip", "description": "Zero-information baseline assigning equal 50/50 odds (P = 0.50) to all event propositions.", "predictions": { "PRED-001": 0.5, "PRED-002": 0.5, "PRED-003": 0.5, "PRED-004": 0.5, "PRED-005": 0.5 }, "case_scores": [ { "case_id": "PRED-001", "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460", "forecast_probability": 0.5, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.25 }, { "case_id": "PRED-002", "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650", "forecast_probability": 0.5, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.25 }, { "case_id": "PRED-003", "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248", "forecast_probability": 0.5, "outcome": 0, "brier_score": 0.25 }, { "case_id": "PRED-004", "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319", "forecast_probability": 0.5, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.25 }, { "case_id": "PRED-005", "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400", "forecast_probability": 0.5, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.25 } ], "mean_brier_score": 0.25, "brier_skill_score": 0, "murphy_decomposition": { "reliability": 0.09, "resolution": 0, "uncertainty": 0.16 }, "discrimination_auc": 0.5, "win_rate_vs_epss": "80% (4/5)" }, { "id": "EPSS-RAW", "name": "Raw EPSS First-Day Baseline", "type": "epss_baseline", "badge": "Population-Wide", "description": "Unadjusted first-day published Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS v3) probability.", "predictions": { "PRED-001": 0.07, "PRED-002": 0.12, "PRED-003": 0.04, "PRED-004": 0.08, "PRED-005": 0.21 }, "case_scores": [ { "case_id": "PRED-001", "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460", "forecast_probability": 0.07, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.8649 }, { "case_id": "PRED-002", "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650", "forecast_probability": 0.12, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.7744 }, { "case_id": "PRED-003", "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248", "forecast_probability": 0.04, "outcome": 0, "brier_score": 0.0016 }, { "case_id": "PRED-004", "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319", "forecast_probability": 0.08, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.8464 }, { "case_id": "PRED-005", "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400", "forecast_probability": 0.21, "outcome": 1, "brier_score": 0.6241 } ], "mean_brier_score": 0.6223, "brier_skill_score": -148.9, "murphy_decomposition": { "reliability": 0.4719, "resolution": 0.0096, "uncertainty": 0.16 }, "discrimination_auc": 0.54, "win_rate_vs_epss": "0%" } ]