{
  "version": "2.0.0",
  "methodology_version": "FORECAST-1.4",
  "updated_at": "2026-09-24T12:24:24.826Z",
  "engine": "Hermes Forecast Engine (FORECAST-1.4)",
  "epistemic_standard": "Falsifiable Probabilistic Statements with Deterministic Oracles (P5, P10)",
  "summary": {
    "total_predictions": 13,
    "active_predictions": 8,
    "resolved_predictions": 5,
    "resolved_true": 4,
    "resolved_false": 1,
    "mean_brier_score": 0.1043,
    "skill_score_vs_random": "58%",
    "reliability_tier": "HIGH_CALIBRATION"
  },
  "calibration_curve": [
    {
      "range": "0.00 - 0.20",
      "total_predictions": 0,
      "resolved_predictions": 0,
      "mean_forecast_probability": null,
      "empirical_frequency": null,
      "calibration_delta": null
    },
    {
      "range": "0.20 - 0.40",
      "total_predictions": 0,
      "resolved_predictions": 0,
      "mean_forecast_probability": null,
      "empirical_frequency": null,
      "calibration_delta": null
    },
    {
      "range": "0.40 - 0.60",
      "total_predictions": 0,
      "resolved_predictions": 0,
      "mean_forecast_probability": null,
      "empirical_frequency": null,
      "calibration_delta": null
    },
    {
      "range": "0.60 - 0.80",
      "total_predictions": 7,
      "resolved_predictions": 2,
      "mean_forecast_probability": 0.73,
      "empirical_frequency": 0.5,
      "calibration_delta": 0.23
    },
    {
      "range": "0.80 - 1.00",
      "total_predictions": 6,
      "resolved_predictions": 3,
      "mean_forecast_probability": 0.87,
      "empirical_frequency": 1,
      "calibration_delta": -0.13
    }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "id": "PRED-001",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-76460",
      "title": "DeepSeek-V3 LLM Prompt Execution CISA KEV Addition",
      "target_name": "DeepSeek-V3 Sandbox Escape & Tool Execution",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "CVE-2026-76460 will be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) catalog within 30 days of public PoC disclosure.",
      "probability": 0.88,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2026-10-15",
      "status": "resolved_true",
      "oracle_type": "cisa_kev_inclusion",
      "brier_score": 0.0144,
      "created_at": "2026-09-15T08:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-17T18:00:00Z",
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-001.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-002",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-75650",
      "title": "StyleSmuggler E-Commerce CSS Injection Weaponization",
      "target_name": "StyleSmuggler CSS Inlining Engine",
      "domain": "supply_chain_cloud",
      "hypothesis": "Public weaponized exploit code enabling arbitrary remote script execution or credit card exfiltration will be released within 14 days of vulnerability advisory.",
      "probability": 0.82,
      "confidence": 0.89,
      "horizon_days": 14,
      "target_date": "2026-09-28",
      "status": "resolved_true",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization",
      "brier_score": 0.0324,
      "created_at": "2026-09-14T09:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2026-09-17T14:30:00Z",
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-002.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-003",
      "target_id": "CVE-2025-3248",
      "title": "Langflow Sandbox Memory Corruption Mass Internet Scanning",
      "target_name": "Langflow AI Pipeline Server",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "GreyNoise telemetry will detect automated, non-research scanning traffic targeting unauthenticated Langflow instances across >= 50 distinct IPs within 30 days.",
      "probability": 0.65,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2025-06-15",
      "status": "resolved_false",
      "oracle_type": "greynoise_mass_exploitation",
      "brier_score": 0.4225,
      "created_at": "2025-05-16T00:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2025-06-15T23:59:59Z",
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-003.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-004",
      "target_id": "CVE-2025-26319",
      "title": "AutoGPT Indirect Prompt Injection Shell Escape CISA KEV Listing",
      "target_name": "Significant-Gravitas AutoGPT",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "CVE-2025-26319 will be added to the CISA KEV catalog within 90 days of initial disclosure due to observed threat-actor usage against enterprise autonomous agents.",
      "probability": 0.78,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "horizon_days": 90,
      "target_date": "2025-08-30",
      "status": "resolved_true",
      "oracle_type": "cisa_kev_inclusion",
      "brier_score": 0.0484,
      "created_at": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-004.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-005",
      "target_id": "CVE-2024-3400",
      "title": "Palo Alto Networks PAN-OS Command Injection Mass Exploitation",
      "target_name": "Palo Alto PAN-OS GlobalProtect Gateway",
      "domain": "enterprise_infrastructure",
      "hypothesis": "Active in-the-wild exploitation will be reported by Shadowserver or national CERTs within 7 days of initial zero-day bulletin.",
      "probability": 0.94,
      "confidence": 0.96,
      "horizon_days": 7,
      "target_date": "2024-04-19",
      "status": "resolved_true",
      "oracle_type": "shadowserver_telemetry",
      "brier_score": 0.0036,
      "created_at": "2024-04-12T04:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": "2024-04-14T11:00:00Z",
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-005.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-006",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-48746",
      "title": "Flowise MCP Server Command Injection In-the-Wild Exploitation",
      "target_name": "Flowise Model Context Protocol (MCP) Server",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "CVE-2026-48746 will see automated weaponized scanning or inclusion in CISA KEV within 60 days of disclosure.",
      "probability": 0.84,
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "horizon_days": 60,
      "target_date": "2026-11-12",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "cisa_kev_inclusion",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-13T10:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-006.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-007",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-5027",
      "title": "vLLM Inference Engine API Key Leakage Exploit Chaining",
      "target_name": "vLLM Distributed Model Serving Engine",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "A public proof-of-concept chaining CVE-2026-5027 cache exposure with cloud IAM credential theft will be published within 30 days.",
      "probability": 0.72,
      "confidence": 0.81,
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2026-10-14",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-14T11:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-007.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-008",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-11393",
      "title": "AgentCore Multi-Agent Orchestrator Sandbox Breakout Exploitation",
      "target_name": "AgentCore Orchestrator Engine",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "Active in-the-wild exploitation targeting enterprise AgentCore deployments will trigger an urgent national CERT advisory (ANSSI, CISA or BSI) within 60 days.",
      "probability": 0.69,
      "confidence": 0.76,
      "horizon_days": 60,
      "target_date": "2026-11-15",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "cert_national_advisory",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-008.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-009",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-4372",
      "title": "CrewAI Multi-Agent Delegation Hijack Weaponization",
      "target_name": "CrewAI Autonomous Agent Framework",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "A weaponized multi-agent tool poisoning exploit will be cataloged on GitHub or Metasploit within 30 days of disclosure.",
      "probability": 0.76,
      "confidence": 0.83,
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2026-10-16",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-16T14:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-009.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-010",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-76461",
      "title": "Cisco SEG AsyncOS Zero-Click SQLi Automated Mass In-the-Wild Scanning",
      "target_name": "Cisco Secure Email Gateway (AsyncOS)",
      "domain": "enterprise_infrastructure",
      "hypothesis": "Shadowserver or GreyNoise honeypots will record automated weaponized SMTP injection probes targeting exposed port 25 of Cisco SEG appliances across >= 25 distinct autonomous systems within 14 days.",
      "probability": 0.91,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "horizon_days": 14,
      "target_date": "2026-09-28",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "shadowserver_telemetry",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-14T10:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-010.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-011",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-87886",
      "title": "Acronis Backup Plugin Shared Hosting Mass Root Escalation",
      "target_name": "Acronis Backup Plugin for cPanel & Plesk",
      "domain": "supply_chain_cloud",
      "hypothesis": "A public weaponized Metasploit module or automated privilege escalation exploit script weaponizing CVE-2026-87886 on multi-tenant hosting servers will be published within 30 days.",
      "probability": 0.82,
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2026-10-15",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-15T12:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-011.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-012",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-90711",
      "title": "proxy-addr Node.js Express WAF & Rate Limiter Bypass Weaponization",
      "target_name": "proxy-addr (Node.js/Express) Networking Subsystem",
      "domain": "supply_chain_cloud",
      "hypothesis": "An open-source exploit harness automating X-Forwarded-For IPv4-mapped IPv6 CIDR bypass against production Express/NestJS rate limiters will be released on GitHub within 14 days.",
      "probability": 0.79,
      "confidence": 0.86,
      "horizon_days": 14,
      "target_date": "2026-09-25",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-11T16:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-012.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "PRED-013",
      "target_id": "CVE-2026-90777",
      "title": "ESPnet Malicious Checkpoint Model Registry Weaponization",
      "target_name": "ESPnet PyTorch Speech Model Loader",
      "domain": "agentic_ai",
      "hypothesis": "Security telemetry from Hugging Face or public malware repositories will identify at least one weaponized pickle checkpoint disguised as an ESPnet voice model executing remote code within 30 days.",
      "probability": 0.73,
      "confidence": 0.82,
      "horizon_days": 30,
      "target_date": "2026-10-11",
      "status": "active",
      "oracle_type": "verified_public_weaponization",
      "brier_score": null,
      "created_at": "2026-09-11T18:00:00Z",
      "resolved_at": null,
      "url": "/api/forecast/PRED-013.json"
    }
  ]
}