OBS-2025-000221: CVE-2025-39964

1. Observe What changed? →

2. Understand Why does it matter? →

3. Track How does risk evolve? →

4. Predict What happens next? →

5. Decide What to do? →

6. Verify What happened? →

7. Remember Persistent memory

IMMUTABLE CANONICAL OBSERVATION

OBS-2025-000221

Target Entity: CVE-2025-39964 — Linux Kernel Crypto AF_ALG Concurrent Write Race Condition

MODE: RETROSPECTIVE

Methodology: HTS-3.1

Observed UTC:
2025-08-10T00:00:00.000Z

Event Date:
2025-08-10

Epistemic State:
● KNOWN

Cryptographic Digest:
sha256-58f3378d56b9c82…

1. Verified Evidence & Observed State

This canonical observation confirms the following factual event on the threat surface:

Hermes Threat Score (HTS)

48 / 100

MEDIUM

CVSS v3.1

N/A

Not Available

EPSS (30-Day Exploitation)

N/A

Percentile: N/A

Weaponization & CISA KEV

🛡️ Not in KEV

Exploit Maturity: poc

2. Decomposed Epistemic Confidence Vector

Hermes rejects false certainty and explicitly exposes its decomposed confidence vector:

Evidence Integrity98%

Model Stability96%

Data Completeness95%

Actionable Decisiveness95%

3. Primary Sources & Provenance Chain

Observation OBS-2025-000221 is strictly anchored to verified records from the following primary entities:

CISA KEV
NVD
Hermes Codex Research

Causal Intelligence Lineage

Primary Source → OBS-2025-000221 → CVE-2025-39964 → Risk Trajectory → Action Directive

4. Target Entity & Correlated Intelligence

Primary Vulnerability Dossier: CVE-2025-39964
Dynamic Risk Trajectories: View risk trajectory analysis
Decision Engine: View prescriptive remediation directives

5. Observation Sequence & Chain of Custody

Chronological lineage for entity CVE-2025-39964:

Preceding Observation: None (Initial Baseline)
Succeeding Observation: OBS-2025-000222

Observation ID	Date	Mode	Score	Observed Fact
👉 `OBS-2025-000221`	`2025-08-10`	RETROSPECTIVE	48	Initial upstream commit submitted to kernel crypto subsystem.
`OBS-2025-000222`	`2025-09-02`	RETROSPECTIVE	62	Public advisory published; theoretical local DoS rated CVSS 5.5.
`OBS-2026-000223`	`2026-09-18`	LIVE	88	CISA adds to KEV catalog citing active exploitation in the wild.
`OBS-2026-000224`	`2026-09-19`	LIVE	91	Public functional LPE exploit repository published by n1k0oowang.

6. Reproducibility & Cryptographic Verification

(Section 77 Mandate: “Observations must be reproducible”)

Fetch and verify this observation record directly from the machine-readable API:

# 1. Fetch canonical observation record
curl -sSL https://hermes-codex.vercel.app/api/observations/OBS-2025-000221.json

# 2. Verify cryptographic SHA-256 integrity
curl -sSL https://hermes-codex.vercel.app/api/observations/OBS-2025-000221.json | sha256sum

OASIS STIX 2.1 Mapping (`observed-data`)

{
  "type": "observed-data",
  "spec_version": "2.1",
  "id": "observed-data--2567c2fa-213e-4f68-225c-4ba364ae3ed8",
  "created_by_ref": "identity--hermes-codex-threat-observatory",
  "created": "2025-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "modified": "2025-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "first_observed": "2025-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "last_observed": "2025-08-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "number_observed": 1,
  "external_references": [
    {
      "source_name": "hermes-codex",
      "external_id": "OBS-2025-000221",
      "url": "https://hermes-codex.vercel.app/observations/obs-2025-000221/"
    }
  ],
  "object_marking_refs": [
    "marking-definition--tlp-clear"
  ],
  "custom_properties": {
    "x_hermes_threat_score": 48,
    "x_hermes_severity": "MEDIUM",
    "x_hermes_epistemic_state": "KNOWN",
    "x_hermes_methodology": "HTS-3.1",
    "x_hermes_integrity_hash": "sha256-58f3378d56b9c820298a45d288af95c41910b9799fdf11f804afa959c6a8698a"
  }
}